Part One

1 I ntroduction

1.1 Background

The Halcrow Group together with a local team of consultants and specialists lead by the Joint Consultative Council has been appointed by the Government of Trinidad & Tobago to provide planning and development advice at national and local levels. The initial work concentrated on preparing a National Conceptual Development Plan (NCDP) which was designed to update the 1982 National Physical Development Plan (NPPD) and to serve as a timely policy document to guide physical development within Trinidad and Tobago.

The NCPD was prepared rapidly to respond to development pressures and its preparation was based on existing data and document review, and consultations with Government, the private sector and non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs). Its main function is to provide a framework within which Concept Plans and Local Area Plans for specific areas and locations can be developed. In addition to the NCDP, the initial Concept Plans have all been completed.

1.2 The National Conceptual Development Plan

The key stages of this work incorporated:

· A Land Use Strategy, including a planning justification of the Balanced Growth approach which has been adopted to guide national development;

· Sectoral Overview and Policy Guidelines, including an analysis of industrial and employment characteristics and other key sectors impacting growth potential;

· The National Conceptual Development Plan Proposals, including a Local Area Concept Plan Framework, in text and illustrative plan form.

1.3 Current Programme and Objectives

The current programme represents the first tranche of Phase 2 (Local Area Planning) for physical planning in Trinidad and Tobago. The main purpose is to prepare Local Area Plans for three priority urban areas, based on their respective Concept Plans completed under the NCDP studies. The second of these Local Area Plans is for the Chaguanas area, which is the subject of this draft report.

A Local Area Plan comprises:

i. a Master Plan and written document covering the whole area of study; and

ii. one or more detailed Action Area Plans, which identify critical areas for priority action.

The objectives of these Local Area Plans are as follows:

· To provide updated guidance for development control;

· To increase private sector interest in development planning;

· To identify priority public sector infrastructure projects;

· To facilitate housing land delivery for low income households;

· To enhance and protect the local physical and human environment; and

· To improve integration and consultations between concerned agencies and the public.

1.4 Approach and Method

The Local Area Plans represent a further step in a consistent and integrated process of providing planning guidance that originated in the NPDP and has been updated with the NCDP and the Local Concept Plans. The Concept Plans were designed to update previous proposals for each study area in respect of: -

· Overall spatial strategy;

· Key planning constraints; and

· Major development opportunities.

This process of Local Area Plan preparation has drawn on previous plans and reports, readily available information, some limited fieldwork and discussions with key stakeholders. It has been carried out in joint venture with a wide range of local consultants and specialists.

1.4.1 Previous Plans and Studies

For the Chaguanas area in particular, account has been taken of the following plans and studies:

- National Physical Development Plan, Town and Country Planning Division, 1983

- Chaguanas Land Use Plan, Town and Country Planning Division, Ministry of Planning and Development, Dec 1991;

- Chaguanas Development Plan 1997-1998. A Vision for the New Chaguanas, Chaguanas Borough Council;

- Scoping Study: Chaguanas/Cunupia Local Area Plan. PLANET/Dr. Michelle Mycoo. August 1999;

- Caroni Region Plan Draft, Town and Country Planning Division, 1975;

- Carlsen Field Structure Plan, Land Settlement Agency/ PACS, 2000

- Chaguanas Local Area Concept Plan, UDeCoTT (Halcrow) 1999;

Other reports and documents are detailed in each section as appropriate.

1.4.2 Scope of Work

The scope of work for this Local Area Plan is focused on:

· Confirming critical assumptions made in the Concept Plan, including current policies, programmes and major commitments;

· Preparing a robust Master Plan for the development of the area, incorporating a land use strategy and policies for key elements and which address significant environmental impacts;

· Identifying/ planning and design guidelines for selected areas including for example, the central area, industrial/ employment areas, housing areas and open space/recreation.

· Identifying priority action proposals needed to instigate development, including responsibilities as between the public and private sectors, identification of priority infrastructure projects, overall cost estimates, phasing and institutional requirements.

The method used followed a bottom-up/top-down approach to issue identification and resolution. The Chaguanas area consists of a number of settlements and land use types which were identified in the Concept Plan and previous studies. The land uses have been used as the basis for analysis and relevant issues and opportunities explored at the local (settlement) scale.

This bottom-up approach has been merged with the top-down approach identified at Concept Plan stage to ensure that local and area-wide priorities are clearly identified, for example in Chaguanas Town Centre where several issues interact. Using this approach will also help discussion of issues during the consultation and later public participation phase of this study.

1.4.3 Some Limitations

At the time of writing, data from the 2000 Census data were not available for analysis and the proposals put forward in this report will need to be reviewed in the light of this new data when published.

It is also worth noting that the physical planning actions discussed here will need to be integrated with other measures to optimise impacts: such as education and health, and community development. By identifying key development planning programmes within the Master Plan framework and the more detailed Action Area Plans, later, it is anticipated that the necessary complementary actions can be integrated so that a comprehensive approach to implementation mechanisms put forward.

1.4.4 Consultation Process

A major feature of the current process has been the conduct of a range of meetings and consultations with Government Ministries, agencies and authorities, the private sector and non-Governmental organisations (NGOs). Following submission of this Interim Report, it is intended to hold a programme of public consultation, including meetings in each local area, so that the needs and aspirations of existing communities and other local interests are fully taken into account in formulating proposals.

Consultations carried out to date include:

· Town and Country Planning Division, Ministry of Integrated Planning and Development;

· Drainage Division, Ministry of Infrastructure, Development and Local Government;

· Road Planning Department, Highway Division, Ministry of Infrastructure, Development and Local Government;

· Traffic Management Branch, Ministry of Transport;

· Geology and Geophysics Division, Ministry of Energy;

· Forestry, Ministry of Food Production and Marine Resources;

· Environmental Management Agency, Ministry of the Environment;

· Chaguanas Borough Corporation;

· Greater Chaguanas Chamber of Commerce;

· Caroni (1975) Limited;

· T&TEC;

· Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA); and

· National Gas Company.

1.4.5 Outputs

An analysis of the local and area-wide opportunities, followed by Action Area planning and implementation mechanisms will form the basis of the strategies and proposals for the Chaguanas area for the next 20-year period.

The principal outputs consist of:

· A Master Plan showing broad land uses, development strategies and principal highways for the year 2020;

· A Transportation Network Plan;

· An Infrastructure Plan, showing trunk networks and facilities;

· A Chaguanas Town Centre Plan and Development Phasing Strategy; and

· A Concise Report, including data and analysis, policies and proposals and identifying a ‘short list’ of areas or topics where priority actions are likely to be required.

1.4.6 Next Steps

This document represents the Interim Report for the Chaguanas area. Following submission and review it will be subject to further consultation and public participation, prior to revision and finalisation. The consultation process for the Plan outlined above will inform the identification and refinement of priority action proposals, including the identification of responsibilities for implementation as between public, community and private sector agencies. The more detailed Action Area Plans will be prepared in later tranches of work. Broad cost estimates for public sector infrastructure projects, phasing and institutional requirements will also be identified in these Plans.

1.5 Format of this Report

This Interim Report is presented in four parts:

Part One, which comprises this Introduction (Section 1), and which is preceded by the Executive summary;

Part Two, which describes the Context of the current work and includes sections on:

Study Area (Section 2);

Human Environment (Section 3);

Natural Environment (Section 4);

Transport (Section 5); and

Infrastructure (Section 6).

Part Three, which outlines the Planning Strategy for the Chaguanas area (Section 7); and identifies and discusses the policies and proposals for action in Chaguanas Town Centre (Section 8); and

Part Four, which outlines possible Implementation Mechanisms including proposals for the Public Consultation process (Section 9), which is to follow this stage of the work and also proposes the definition of two Action Areas (Section 10).

Part Two

2 St udy Area Context

2.1 National and Regional Context

Chaguanas is located in the Caroni Region, the heartland of two major elements that have been central to the shaping of present day Trinidad and Tobago. The first is the sugar plantation, which was historically the primary production element in the Caribbean and has laid the basis for the plantation economy, the main single component of West Indian economic and societal development.

Sugar fuelled the slave trade and in Trinidad, it also introduced East Indian indentureship. So that the second element is the East Indian presence in significant numbers and exerting considerable influence in cultural activity and commerce. That presence and influence is vividly expressed in Caroni.

Caroni (1975) Limited, the state-owned company, which embraces the entire sugar industry, is a central feature of the life of Caroni; being the single largest employer in the area and controlling a vast expanse of land. The company is synonymous with the history of sugar.

A further key characteristic of the Chaguanas area is its strategic location along the Uriah Butler/ Solomon Hochoy national Highway and the Southern Main Road, between Greater Port of Spain and the east-west corridor to the north and Couva/ Point Lisas and San Fernando to the south.

As a consequence of these nationally important highway links and connections to the main ports and urban areas of Trinidad, Chaguanas has become a centre for trade, commerce and distribution and other light industries including construction depots.

This high level of transport accessibility has also stimulated continuous housing developments within commuting distance of Port of Spain, the east-west urban corridor, Couva/ Point Lisas and San Fernando.

Other recent trends include the development of a number of large retail malls, retail and wholesale warehouses and distribution centres, making Chaguanas one of the largest concentrations of modern retail floorspace in the country. This is accompanied by a vibrant traditional town centre, with a large market, which is currently being modernised, and a thriving informal retail sector.

2.2 Study Area Characteristics

Chaguanas is a bazaar town with an expanding residential area where along the main thoroughfares of the settlements that make up the wider Chaguanas conurbation, residential and commercial activities have traditionally been combined. The town itself is a bustling, active urban centre combining in the commercial core, modern shopping facilities with the market – a proliferation of vendors offering their wares.

The East Indian cultural force is expressed in may varied forms and activities – Hindu and Islamic religious festivals, weddings, manufacture of oriental herbs and spices, roti and doubles which have become national goods and the music (classical Indian or local chutney). That force is captured essentially in the celebration of Divali occurring in the last quarter of the calendar year which has become a national festival.

Though celebrated at the level of the family and community, the National Council of Indian Culture (NCIC) has emerged as the main organiser of the national activity. The focus of the festivities is the town of Chaguanas, the fastest growing urban area in Trinidad and Tobago, which is effectively “the capital of Caroni”. The physical centre of Divali is the Divali Nagar Village located just north of the town centre.

2.2.1 Definition

The Study Area has been defined based on the earlier Scoping Study and Concept Plan work.

Chaguanas sub-region incorporates Caroni Swamp, Felicity and agricultural areas to the west of the existing town, potential areas for urban expansion to the north at Munroe Road and south including Carlsen Field and the main residential settlements to the east.

These expanding settlements include Montrose, Longdenville, Enterprise, Cunupia and Mon Plaisir which are also included in the Plan study area.

Planning for this emerging conurbation requires clear definition and designation of the boundaries to urban development which should reflect key constraints including:

the retention and maintenance of better quality agricultural land;

the Caroni Swamp proposed national park and coastal wetlands to the west;

the Longdenville Forest Reserve to the east; and

the need for appropriate drainage, irrigation and flood protection zones throughout the area.

2.2.2 Settlements

Regional and sub-regional centres in the Study Area have been defined as:

Chaguanas Town

This is the original core of the urban settlement of Chaguanas, and one of the older settlements in Trinidad. The area now functions as the Central Business District for the emerging Chaguanas conurbation and surrounding communities. The commercial core of the town centre is effectively separated from the residential catchment areas to the east by the national Highway.

Felicity

Felicity lies within the Caroni sugar cane growing area and is the main settlement west of the Highway, northwest of Chaguanas and east of the Caroni Swamp. Some of the first group of East Indian indentured workers were settled in this location.

Enterprise

There has been large-scale (spontaneous) development on private lands in and around Enterprise. This is now one of the most densely populated parts of the plan area, lying east of the Highway and forming part of the wider urban conurbation from Chaguanas town to Longdenville.

Longdenville

The expanding settlement of Longdenville lies to the east of the main conurbation on the edge of a sparsely settled district affected by long-term clay mining activities, within the Longdenville Forest Reserve. There are extensive unrestored, mined-out lands in the area, as well as active pits and associated industries; some deforestation has taken place on the fringes of the Reserve.

Cunupia

Cunupia is one of the larger settlements in the sub-region, lying on the intersection between the Southern Main Road and Chin Chin Road northeast of Chaguanas town centre. This is a significant centre for local services and is currently expanding as a residential community, being strategically located between Chaguanas and the Piarco internatinal airport complex.

Carlsen Field

This is the site of a former U.S. air base, lying east of and adjacent to the Solomon Hochoy Highway, south east of Chaguanas town.

There are some large construction/ industrial operations close to the Highway, but much of the area is informally used for sporadic and dispersed agricultural activities, particularly grazing, dairy and poultry farms. There are other informal industrial activities (such as scrap metal dealers) and scattered homes, accessed through the network of roads remaining from the former air base.

Smaller settlements include Charlieville, Montrose to the east, Mon Plaisir to the northeast and Chase Village/ Agostini to the west of the Highway. All of these expanding settlements include a mix of house types and densities. They can be characterised as largely developments where incremental housing growth is being experienced surrounded by smallholder and mixed agricultural practices that are coming under increasing pressure for other more built form uses. In the longer term, coalescence of many of these settlements within the wider Chaguanas conurbation is likely, unless stronger definition of settlement boundaries, combined with enforcement of development and agricultural constraint policies outside of these areas can be maintained.

3 H uman Environment

3.1 Introduction

This Section presents information on the distribution and growth of population and households in the Study Area. This analysis is then used to formulate population and household projections for the Study Area over the next 20 years. Housing and land requirements are then estimated, and social and community facilities identified.

For the most part, the data has been derived from the 1990 Census. Other material has been obtained by field survey and from other relevant studies and reports, principally the socio-economic analysis report prepared as part of the parallel National Conceptual Plan Development (NCDP) Study, Volume 1: National Report. It should be noted that no information from the 2000 Census is currently available. When this information is published, it may prove necessary to revise the projections.

3.2 Population and Households

3.2.1 Population Distribution

In 1990, the population of the Study Area was just under 78,000 residing in 17,500 households. The population is split between Cunupia and Chaguanas wards in Caroni County with around 90% living in Chaguanas ward; 75% of the population of this ward is included in the Study Area compared to only 38% of Cunupia’s population. The average household size (AHS) was 4.5 persons compared to the national average of 4.0 indicating a higher proportion of nucleated families.

The current Study Area population is estimated to be in the order of 91,000.

Table 3.1. Population Distribution by Ward, 1990

WARD	Population	% of Study Area	Households	AHS
Cunupia	8920	11%	1823	4.9
Chaguanas	68990	89%	15647	4.4
TOTAL	77910	100%	17470	4.5

Source: 1990 Census

Table 3.2 summarises the population distribution into 10 settlement clusters, which have been derived by aggregating ED populations.

Table 3.2 Population of Settlement Clusters

Cluster	Population	% of total pop.	Households
Cunupia/Bejucal/Mon Plaisir	12500	16%	2595
Felicity	6670	9%	1354
Charlieville	7180	9%	1553
Jerningham/Endeavour	4860	6%	1042
Enterprise	6690	9%	1587
Lendore	7020	9%	1758
Chaguanas/Montrose/Lange Park/ Edinburgh	18870	24%	4453
Longdenville Centre	6550	8%	1476
Longdenville East	4980	6%	1090
Chandernagore/Carlsen Field	2590	3%	562
TOTAL	77910	100%	17470

NB. Figures for individual settlements have been adjusted to be consistent with published ward totals.

Source: 1990 Census

The three major concentrations of population are

· Chaguanas town, including the residential areas of Lange Park, Montrose, Edinburgh Gardens and Edinburgh 500 with just over 19,000 people (24% of the Study Area population)

· the North East sector (Cunupia, Mon Plaisir, Bejucal) with 12,500 (16%).

· Longdenville (Centre and East) with 11,500 people (15%)

Together these clusters comprise around half of the population of the study area: functionally however they are somewhat different. Chaguanas is the principal settlement with a wide range of commercial activity serving a wide area as well as administrative and judicial functions; it includes the planned middle income areas of Lange Park and Edinburgh. Longdenville is essentially an eastward extension of Chaguanas, particularly in terms of small commercial enterprises located along Caparo Valley Road; there are substantial vacant areas to the east as yet underdeveloped, under forest cover. Cunupia Village is the major village in the north east of the study area - with a good range of commercial, community and social facilities. Thirty nine percent (39%) of the population lives in the main ‘urban belt’ of Chaguanas/ Montrose/ Longdenville.

Of the remaining areas, Felicity is the only settlement wholly located west of the highway. It was originally a sugar estate residential area, whilst Charlieville straddles the highway. The central area (Jerningham, Endeavour, Esmeralda) has little structure; it includes planned developments, ribbon development and squatting communities.

All settlements now contain a substantial proportion of residents who work in the Capital Region or are relative newcomers. Ribbon development occurs along most roads in the Study Area; in many cases however the development is not continuous. Concentrated, non-ribbon development occurs in few locations apart from Cunupia, Chaguanas and between the Southern Main Road and Caparo Valley Road.

Households tend to be smaller in Chaguanas, Montrose, Edinburgh, Lendore and Enterprise. This could reflect the greater number of ‘younger’ families resulting from significant proportions of newer housing (both formal and informal) in these clusters.

3.2.2 Population and Household Growth, 1980-1990

The population of the Study Area increased from 59,000 in 1980 to 78,000 in 1990. This represents an annual growth rate of 2.8%, which is much higher than the national average of 1.2%. This rapid increase reflects both the development of commercial activities in the area and increased house provision for commuters working in the Capital Region. Table 3.3 presents population and household data and growth rates for constituent parts of the Study Area.

During the 1980s, the Study Area grew faster than the rest of Caroni County, including the parts of Cunupia and Chaguanas wards excluded from the Study Area. All parts of the Study Area experienced population growth. The pattern was however uneven with the highest rates occurring in Enterprise, Lendore and Longdenville. The number of households increased at a faster rate than population due primarily to the national trend of decreasing household size (from around 4.6 persons per household in 1980 to around 4 in 1990).

Growth has occurred in three main ways:

· through the development of planned housing estates, e.g. Lange Park, Edinburgh

· through the extension and subdivision of existing buildings and lots

· through the construction of new buildings on existing plots and infilling, i.e. the construction of single dwellings on previously vacant plots.

Table 3.3. Population and Household Growth, 1980-1990

Cluster	Population		Households		Growth Rate 1980-90
	1980	1990	1980	1990	Pop.	H’holds
Cunupia/Bejucal/Mon Plaisir	9449	12500	1808	2595	2.8%	3.7%
Felicity	5647	6670	1012	1354	1.7%	3.0%
Charlieville	5453	7180	1012	1553	2.8%	4.4%
Jerningham/Endeavour	4005	4860	775	1042	2.0%	3.0%
Enterprise	4653	6690	1019	1587	3.7%	4.5%
Lendore	4900	7020	1146	1758	3.7%	4.4%
Chaguanas/Montrose/Lange Park/Edinburgh	14955	18870	3124	4453	2.4%	3.6%
Longdenville Centre	4548	6550	932	1476	3.7%	4.7%
Longdenville East	3414	4980	647	1090	3.8%	5.4%
Chandernagore/Carlsen Field	2019	2590	386	562	2.5%	3.8%
STUDY AREA	59042	77910	11860	17470	2.8%	3.9%
Rest of Cun./Chag. wards	28998	37170	5762	8060	2.5%	3.4%
Rest of CARONI County	53279	67240	10934	15228	2.4%	3.4%

Source: 1980 and 1990 Censuses.

3.2.3 The Study Area Population in 2000

Pending the publication of the results of the 2000 census, there is no information on the current population of the Study Area, either in total or by cluster. An estimate of the current population can however be derived by making reasoned assumptions based on the observed 1980 to 1990 trends, information on planning applications and national level data. The methodology used is similar to that used for the Couva Local Plan Study undertaken by Halcrow in 2000.

The National Conceptual Plan Study has produced estimates and projections of population and households for 2000 for each ward and county based on 1980-1990 growth rates, estimated 1996 regional populations and longer term national projections. The assumptions incorporated in these projections essentially reflect a continuation of the existing trend of above average growth in Caroni as a result of ‘overspill’ from the Capital Region. Using the National Plan estimates, the current population of the Study Area has been obtained by pro-rating the 2000 totals for Cunupia and Chaguanas wards using the 1990 study area populations in each ward and maintaining a faster growth rate within the Study Area compared to the rest of Caroni. This gives 2000 population and household estimates of 91,000 and 23,400 respectively; the average household size has declined to around 3.9, which is consistent with national trends.

In order to provide some guidance for the future development planning of the area, the current distribution of population within the Study Area has also been estimated (Table 3.4). A two-stage methodology was used:

· Firstly, population in all settlements was assumed to increase at the overall rate of national population increase from 1990 to 2000 (0.7% per annum). This gives a total year 2000 population of 83,500.

· Secondly, the difference between this and the overall estimate of 91,000 (i.e. 7,500 people) was then assigned to each cluster pro-rata based on the distribution of planning applications for sub-divisions between 1994 and 1998; an average of the proportions based on the number of applications and the amount of land involved was used. These applications were concentrated in and around Cunupia (31%), Longdenville (23%), Charlieville (15%), and Endeavour/Enterprise (13%). In consequence, these areas exhibit the highest growth over the last 10 years

· Households in each cluster were obtained by pro-rata disaggregation of the Study Area total, 23,400.

The resultant estimates are presented in Table 3.4. These estimates are likely to change when 2000 Census data becomes available. In the meantime, they are considered to be as realistic as can be achieved with the available data.

Table 3.4 Current (2000) Population and Household Estimates

Cluster	Population	Increase 1990-2000		Population	H’holds	Applications (%)#
Cluster	1990	NI *	New **	2000	2000	Applications (%)#
Cunupia/Bejucal/ Mon Plaisir	12500	900	2400	15800	4060	31%
Felicity	6670	480	730	7880	2020	9%
Charlieville	7180	520	1120	8820	2260	15%
Jerningham/Endeavour	4860	350	560	5770	1480	7%
Enterprise	6690	480	450	7620	1950	6%
Lendore	7020	510	40	7570	1940	1%
Chaguanas/Montrose/ Lange Park/ Edinburgh	18870	1360	410	20640	5300	5%
Longdenville Centre	6550	470	310	7330	2460	4%
Longdenville East	4980	360	1430	6770	1150	19%
Chandernagore/Carlsen Field	2590	190	260	3040	780	3%
STUDY AREA	77910	5620	7710	91240	23400	100%

* Natural Increase, i.e. based on national rate of population increase

** Based on proportion of applications for sub-divisions

# Average of percentages of applications since 1994 by number and area

NB. All estimates rounded to nearest 10.

Source: Consultants’ Estimates; application data from analysis of TCPD information.

3.2.4 Population and Household Projections

The future population of the Study Area will depend on three principal factors:

· The natural growth of the currently resident population

· In-migration by commuters to the Capital Region

· The capacity of the Study Area to provide land for new housing and other uses over the next 20 years. This is unlikely to be a constraint given the potential amount of agricultural land, which could be used for residential development.

In this context, it is considered inevitable that, given the acute land constraints in the Capital Region and Greater Port of Spain in particular, the Study Area will continue to attract ‘overspill’ development (e.g. by commuters) and will experience above average growth. Additionally, NCDP strategy is for a degree of decentralisation from Port of Spain. Based on the above, the NCDP ‘allocated’ 41,000 households to be accommodated in Caroni County between 2000 and 2020 (NCDP, Table 3.2); this is some 3,000 more than the ‘trend’ projection, but almost 50% more than if no in-migration was assumed.

The Couva Local Plan provides for around 17,500 of these future additional households (Couva Land Use Plan, Table 8.1). The remaining requirement (23,500) has to be accommodated by the Study Area and the remainder of Caroni County (e.g. Montserrat). On a strict pro-rata basis, 65% of these households would need to be accommodated within the Chaguanas Study Area.

However, since Montserrat and the eastern parts of Chaguanas and Cunupia are more remote, it is considered that the share of the ‘residual’ households allocated to the Study Area should be 75%, i.e. around 17,500. Based on these assumptions, there will thus be around 41,000 households in the Study Area in 2020. Applying the projected average household size for Caroni in 2020 of 3.1 persons (from the NCDP), the population in the Study Area in 2020 would be around 126,000.

Population and household projections for intervening years, i.e. 2005, 2010 and 2015 were obtained by interpolation, taking into account national trends over the same periods. These projections are presented in Table 3.5.

Table 3.5 Population and Household Projections, 2000-2020

YEAR	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020
POPULATION	91240	100800	109200	118100	125800
Increase		9560	8400	8900	7700
Cumulative increase		9560	17960	26860	34560
HOUSEHOLDS	23390	27995	32600	36800	41,000
AHS	3.9	3.6	3.3	3.2	3.1
Increase		4605	4605	4200	4200
Cumulative increase		4605	9210	13410	17610

Source: Consultants Estimates

The main implications of the projections are:

· a 75% increase in households and a 36% increase in population

· the annual increase in households in the Study Area will range between 800 and 900.

It should be noted that the above projections are essentially based on 1980 to 1990 trends; the key assumptions are continued in-migration to the Study Area and a falling household size.

Results from the 2000 Census could require a re-assessment of these projections. In-migration to the area is unlikely to decrease given the lack of housing land in and around Port of Spain; this shortage is likely to become more acute in the future. Household size is considered unlikely to decrease faster than projected, implying that the projections are more likely to be on the high side.

The methodology used to translate these projections into housing land requirements and the resulting projections are presented in the following section.

3.3 Housing

3.3.1 General Characteristics

Since1990, little new quantitative information on housing in the Study Area has been produced. From site observations and discussions, the general indication is that the majority of housing is of reasonable to good quality and benefits from piped water supply and electricity. There is however no mains sewerage in the area and the great majority of properties rely on cesspits and septic tanks.

There are two principal types of ‘formal’ housing in the Study Area:

· privately owned dwellings on individual private plots. This category constitutes the great majority of housing in the Study Area. Many of these dwellings have been extended and rebuilt over the years. A significant proportion is likely to have been sub-divided for occupation by family members. In certain areas, especially in Chaguanas itself, additional buildings have been constructed on the original plot.

· planned developments and estates, e.g. Lange Park, Point Pleasant, Edinburgh Gardens, for middle income families. These ‘estates’ have been developed both through the construction and sale of completed houses and through the sale of serviced plots to be developed by individuals. Vacant plots exist in several of these developments.

Plot sizes vary and are smaller, in certain instances, than the minimum 450 sq.m., standards quoted by Town and Country Planning Division e.g. in Edinburgh 500 many plots are around 300 sq.m. The majority of these developments have been undertaken by the private sector. Government National Housing Authority (NHA) schemes are located in Charlieville and Edinburgh.

In addition to formal housing developments, a number of informal squatting communities have grown up in the Study Area. These are discussed below: -

3.3.2 Squatting

Table 3.6 summarises available information on the main concentrations of squatting in the Study Area. The Table indicates a total number of squatting households of around 550. This is almost certainly a substantial under-estimate as it excludes squatters on the old railway line and does not allow for increases in the last 5 or so years.

The only location for which some socio-economic data was available is the Enterprise location (also known as Bhadase Lands and Settler’s Park). In 1995 when the survey was undertaken (R.M. Rajack, Tenurial Security, Property Freedoms, Dwelling Improvements and Squatter Regularisation in Trinidad, PhD Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1997), 80% of the residents had been resident more than 10 years; only 12% had arrived in the last 5 years. Over half the households were headed by women (slightly higher than the national average) and over half were of African origin which is substantially higher than the national average of just under 40%. Monthly household incomes were low with over 50% earning less than $1000 per month. The impression is that the majority of inhabitants were local who had to squat because of the lack of available and affordable land in their local villages.

Some of these properties are of poor quality, wood construction. However others have been improved over the years and now exhibit little qualitative differences from those on privately owned plots, though plot sizes tend to be smaller than on private plots. In 1995, just under half the households had electricity and 13% had on-plot water connections. It is probable that these proportions will have increased since then. Almost all will rely on pit latrines for sewage disposal.

Current policy is for squatting communities to be regularised in situ. Regularisation schemes are currently being prepared by the Land Settlement Agency (LSA) for squatters on state land and most have been given ‘letters of comfort’ as an interim measure. Caroni 1975 is also in the process of regularising the squatters on its land. The LSA is developing a relocation area for squatters in Carlsen Field.

Due to its private ownership, the LSA is not involved in Enterprise. The National Self-Help Organisation, aided by the local authority, has however assisted the squatters in the paving of roads and the provision of electricity and piped water supply. No regularisation of land tenure has occurred. The Public Transport Services Commission (PTSC) has ‘responsibility’ for dealing with the ‘railway’ squatters: their current policy towards the squatters is not known.

Recent discussions with the Chaguanas Borough Corporation and the Chaguanas Chamber of Commerce indicated support for regularisation reinforcing the LSA and Caroni approaches.

Table 3.6 Squatting Communities in the Study Area, mid-1990s

No.	Name	Location	Land	Area (ha)	Population	Hholds
1	Felicity	Felicity	Caroni	na	595	119
2	Enterprise	Enterprise	Private	<80	1250	250
3	Lawrence Wong Road	Longdenville	State	12	400	79
4	Railway Reserve	Enterprise, Endeavour	PTSC	na	na	na
5	Egypt Village	Endeavour	Caroni	na	na	na
6	Carlsen Field	Carlsen Field West A	State/ Caroni	na	500	95
7	Carlsen Field	Carlsen Field West B	State	20	60	12
	TOTAL			na	2775	555

NB. All figures are approximate and may have increased since the mid-1990s when the data was compiled

* Households per hectare (gross)

** In sq.m., gross. Actual plot size will be substantially less.

*** % of households resident less than 5 years.

Source: Various.

3.3.3 Future Demand for Housing

(a) Demand for Housing Units

The projected increase in households over the 20-year plan period is around 17,500. In assessing the demand for housing units, it is considered prudent to allow for a vacancy rate. The vacancy rate was around 3% in 1990, which is considered reasonable; assuming this rate raises the requirement to around 18,000. There was no evidence of overcrowding (i.e. the household to dwelling ratio in 1990 was less than 1), so no allowance is made for this factor. It should be noted that, based on the current distribution of population and assuming the national trend in household growth, around 64% of the demand for new households will arise from the natural increase of the currently resident population, with the remainder (36%) arising from immigrants.

(b) Multiple Occupation

In practice, land will not need to be allocated for all these units, as some households will be provided for in the same building – e.g. on upper and lower floors. Data from the Census gives a national ratio of 1.07 dwellings per building; in the absence of other information, this ratio has been adopted. This reduces the number of units for which land needs to be provided to around 16,800.

(c) Affordability

Table 3.7 summarises the results of the IDB-financed Shelter Project undertaken in 1995. The Table tabulates housing affordability based on current planning standards and a plot size of 5,000 sq.ft. (450 sq.m.).

The key findings were that only 30% of households could afford a completed house, around a quarter could afford a core home while the remainder would require a substantial degree of subsidy. The Table also shows that 40% of demand is from low income households (under TT$3632 annually at 1995 prices with less than 20% coming from high income families (over TT$8844). Even though these proportions will have changed over the last 5 years due to increased incomes resulting from higher economic growth, the data shows that rigid adherence to current planning standards and a minimum plot size of 450 sq.m. will preclude a large proportion of the population from accessing housing suitable housing and thus encourage squatting.

The same study estimated that reducing plot size to 350 sq.m. would reduce per plot costs (excluding land) by 23%. Other changes in frontages and block size could further reduce costs, as would reduced levels of infrastructure provision standards. In 1990, median household incomes in Chaguanas ward were little different from the national average - $1470 (1990 prices) as against $1410 which implies a similar level of housing affordability in the Study Area to that shown in the Table.

In order to estimate future demand by income group, the proportions in each group have been amended to reflect likely improvements in affordability during the Plan Period.

Table 3.7 Housing Demand by Type and Income Level, 1995-2005 (% distribution)

	INCOME LEVEL
	High	Medium	Low	Total
Complete House	18%	13%	0%	32%
Core house	0%	25%	0%	25%
Subsidised	0%	1%	42%	43%
Total	18%	40%	42%	100%
Assumed Proportions *	20%	45%	35%	100%
Chaguanas demand	3,400	7,600	6,000	17,000

* Proportions changed to reflect probable increases in affordability during plan period

Source: ‘Review of Shelter and Land Development Policy’ by PADCO and Laughlin and Associates, 1995; Consultants’ Estimates

3.3.4 Land Supply and Commitments

(a) Planning Applications and Proposals

Table 3.8 summarises the information on planning applications for sub-divisions in the Study Area between 1994 and 1998; applications in the last 2 years have yet to be added to the database. The Table excludes refusals but includes applications, which had yet to be determined. Around 380 hectares of land is involved.

The main concentrations are: NE clusters – 27%, Longdenville – 24% and Jerningham/ Endeavour/ Enterprise – 17%.

Very few applications are located in and around Chaguanas itself. The most important reason is probably the lack of easily developable land in this, the most heavily built-up part of the Study Area.

A significant proportion of these applications is likely to have been developed already and several will lie within the existing built-up areas. This latter point applies particularly to the smaller applications (under 2 hectares). However these applications, although constituting around half of the total, involve less than a quarter of the land. It has proved impossible to locate these applications on a base map or to identify the number of lots, which are planned within the timescale available.

Table 3.8 Residential (subdivisions) Applications, 1994-1998

CLUSTER	Applications		Area of Applications
CLUSTER	No.	%	Hectares	%
Cunupia/Bejucal/Mon Plaisir	46	35%	103	27%
Felicity	10	8%	43	11%
Charlieville	23	18%	44	12%
Jerningham/Endeavour	12	9%	65	17%
Chaguanas/Montrose/ Lange Park/Edinburgh	8	6%	22	6%
Longdenville	27	21%	91	24%
Chandernagore/Carlsen Field	4	3%	14	4%
TOTAL	130	100%	382	100%

Source: Consultants’ Analysis of TCPD data, 2001

Table 3.9 lists major proposals for residential development in the Study Area. The information was obtained in discussions and meetings with TCPD, local officials, the Chamber of Commerce, Caroni (1975) Ltd and Caribbean Housing Ltd.

Table 3.9 Major Current Residential Proposals

No.	Developer	Location	Status #	Target Group	Area (ha)	Units	Density *
1	Caribbean Housing	East Edinburgh Gardens Phases 2/3	U/C	Middle	36	850	24
2	Caribbean Housing	East Edinburgh Gardens Phases 4/5	PP	Middle	44	1050	24
3	Caribbean Housing	Brentwood Park Gardens @	PP	High	18	800	44
4	Penco	Longdenville	PP	Middle	40	600	15
5	Caroni 1975 Ltd.	Caroni Savannah Road	PP	Middle	60	1200	20
6	Caroni 1975 Ltd.	Egypt Village	PP	High/Middle	70	700	10
7	Land Settlement Agency	Carlsen Field East	U/C	Low	50	200	4**
8	Land Settlement Agency	Carlsen Field West	Proposed	Low	75	300	4**
	TOTAL				393	5700

NB. In most cases, the number of units has been estimated.

* Households per hectare (gross)

# U/C: under construction; PP: planning permission (outline or final)

@ High density duplexes and town housing

** Includes some agricultural homesteads.

Source: Caribbean Housing, Land Settlement Agency, Caroni, TCPD, Consultants’ Estimates.

In total, the commitments described above come to around 400 hectares and 5,700 units. This is equivalent to around 1/3^rd of the total projected housing demand over the next 20 years.

(b) Infilling

It is likely that a substantial proportion of the overall housing demand will be satisfied through infilling and the construction of new buildings on existing plots. The extent to which this will occur will depend on factors such as existing residential densities; policies towards plot sub-division, land ownership patterns and pressures for other types of development. The portion of overall demand accommodated in this way will reduce the need to allocate new housing areas.

In order to get a broad estimate of this component of future demand; it has been assumed that the most densely developed areas (Chaguanas, Montrose, Edinburgh, Longdenville Centre and Lendore) will be able to accommodate a 10% increase in households densification. A 20% increase is assumed for the other areas, which are more, dispersed. These assumptions mean that infilling would accommodate around 2,700 new units, or about 16% of total projected demand.

3.3.5 Future Land Demand

(a) Plot Size and Densities

Assumptions on densities are critical in determining land requirements. The current standard plot size, as set down in the Guide to Developers (TCPD) and re-affirmed in the State Land (Regularization of Tenure) Act (25,1998) is 5,000 sq.ft. (c. 450 sq.m.) Developers are however allowed to reduce this to approximately 300 sq.m. where a comprehensive development is proposed. This approach has been adopted in several schemes, including, notably, the Caribbean Housing project in Edinburgh 500.

Some recent government regularisation and low-income schemes (e.g. at Wallerfield and River Estate) have used smaller plot sizes – 320 to 400 sq.m. It is also evident that many plots in existing settlements will be smaller than 450 sq.m. - particularly squatting communities such as Enterprise. Conversely, upper income groups will, in many cases have larger plots, e.g. 1,000 sq.m.

(b) Future Land Requirement

Table 3.10 contains the estimated land requirement for residential uses over the next 20 years. The demand takes into account existing commitments and has been disaggregated by income group. The density assumptions are:

· high income: 50% on 450 sq.m. plots; 50% on 1000 sq. m. plots

· medium income: 450 sq. m. plots

· low income: mix of 300 and 450 sq. m. plots. It is considered that 450 sq.m. plots for all low income families are neither feasible nor necessary.

The total requirement for new residential land over the next 20 years will thus be in the order of 600 hectares, to accommodate around 8,600 units. Around 40% of this demand will be for low-income households. This estimate is based on a number of assumptions, which are subject to a significant degree of uncertainty. It should thus be used to guide the formulation of the land use strategy for Chaguanas and not to provide an inviolable requirement. Furthermore, given that circumstances (e.g. land ownership issues, changing patterns of employment or infrastructure related constraints) are likely to conspire to prevent the release/development of all allocated land, it is considered that not less than this amount should be allocated to housing in the Chaguanas land use plan.

Table 3.10 Land Demand by Density Type (hectares)

Income Group	Total Demand (units)	Commitments (units)		Residual Demand		Assumed Density *
Income Group	Total Demand (units)	Major proposals	Infill	Units	Area (ha)	Assumed Density *
High income	3400	1150	540	1710	171	10
Middle Income	7600	4050	1215	2335	156	15
Low income	6000	500	945	4555	253	18
Total	17000	5700	2700	8600	580

* Assumed

Source: Tables 3.7 and 3.9; Consultants Estimates.

At present, there is no precedent for the construction of apartments in the area. In planning terms, some apartment provision is desirable as a means of reducing urban sprawl; diversifying land uses in the town centre and promoting the use of public transport. The land requirement implications are that if apartments (@50 per hectare gross) were provided instead of 450 sq.m. plots, around 5 hectares less land would be needed for every 100 apartments constructed. It is likely however that the construction of apartments in the Study Area is most likely to constitute part of the infill ‘provision’. Hence no further allowance for these is made in the estimates.

(c) Land Availability

Opportunity sites for residential development identified in the Concept Plan totalled around 1500 hectares. This figure is reduced to around 650 hectares by Caroni (1975) Limited’s Egypt Village commitment and the exclusion of the sites at Longdenville (re-use of quarries not considered feasible in the medium term) and at Carlsen Field (unlikely to be developed as a short-term option and more likely to be developed for non-residential uses). Conversely, the more detailed definition of the existing built up area undertaken for this Study has resulted in the identification of a considerable amount of additional land on smaller infill sites which could be developed without adding to the fragmentation of other existing parcels. Land is not therefore considered to be a constraint on the formulation of a Master Plan for Chaguanas.

3.4 Employment

3.4.1 Employment Structure

Table 3.11 summarises information on employment in Chaguanas ward in 1990; this can be taken as a proxy for employment in the Study Area as around 90% of the Study Area population reside in this ward.

Table 3.11 Employment Structure, Chaguanas ward, 1990

Classification	Category	Chaguanas	Rest of Caroni	T and T	Diff. *
Industrial Sector	Sugar	8%	12%	4%	5%
	Agriculture	6%	8%	7%	-1%
	Oil/Manufacturing	14%	16%	14%	0%
	Construction	12%	12%	13%	-1%
	Retail and wholesale trade/ Transport	24%	21%	24%	0%
	Finance	6%	4%	7%	-1%
	Government	10%	8%	10%	0%
	Other Services	19%	18%	21%	-2%
	Total	100%	100%	100%
Occupation	Prof./Managerial	7%	6%	8%	-1.5%
	Technical	10%	9%	11%	-0.4%
	Clerical	12%	11%	13%	-0.6%
	Sales/Service	14%	13%	14%	-0.8%
	Agriculture	3%	4%	5%	-1.1%
	Craft	16%	15%	15%	0.6%
	Skilled Manual	12%	12%	10%	1.6%
	Elementary	26%	29%	24%	2.3%
	Total	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%

* Chaguanas percentage minus national percentage.

Source: 1990 Census Data

The noteworthy features for Chaguanas ward are the following:

Industrial Sector: generally similar to national apart from the much higher proportion in the sugar industry and lower in other agriculture. Higher proportions of trade, finance and government relative to the rest of Caroni.

Occupation: little difference between Chaguanas and the rest of Caroni. Higher proportions in skilled manual and elementary occupations and lower in professional / technical occupations than the country as a whole. This essentially reflects the greater importance of small-scale retail trade and sugar employment in Chaguanas.

Some information on the changing employment structure in Caroni County is available from the 1997 Labour Force Survey. Relative to 1990, the trade and transport sectors have become more important at the expense of employment in the sugar industry: this is considered plausible given the clear increase in trade and distribution activities in Chaguanas and the continuing travails of the sugar industry. Construction employment has also decreased, though this is more difficult to explain.

3.4.2 Place of Work

The above data relates to place of residence and not place of work. In practice, a significant amount of the trade and service sector employment (especially Government) will be located outside the Study Area in the Capital Region. Unfortunately, there is little data on this aspect. The 1991 TCPD Chaguanas Land Use Plan estimated that, in 1980, over 40% of the population of the main urban area (Chaguanas, Montrose, Longdenville) worked outside Caroni Region. The great majority of these were employed in the Capital Region (split roughly equally between Port of Spain and the rest of the corridor).

Labour Force Survey data suggests (Table 3.12) that, in the county as a whole, around 30% of employed residents commuted outside the county to work. Given its closer proximity to the Capital Region, the proportion commuting from Chaguanas is likely to be significantly higher. This implies that there has been relatively little change in the proportion of Chaguanas residents commuting over the last 20 or so years.

Table 3.12 also shows that commuting was highest amongst Government workers and the self-employed.

Table 3.12 Commuting in Caroni County, 1995-97, by Type of Worker

Type Of Worker	Resident Workers	Place of Work		% Commuting
Type Of Worker	Resident Workers	Caroni	Outside Caroni	% Commuting
Govt-Service	13,800	6,700	7,100	51%
Govt-Enter	5,900	5,700	200	3%
Privately employed	34,800	27,700	7,100	20%
Self-Employed	12,400	6,100	6,300	51%
Other	7,100	5,000	2,100	30%
Total	74,000	51,200	22800	31%

Source: Consultants’ Analysis of 1997 Labour Force Survey.

3.4.3 Unemployment

Table 3.13 shows regional unemployment levels in Trinidad and Tobago. Data for Chaguanas ward is not available.

Table 3.13 Unemployment Rates, 1990 and 1995-97

REGION	Unemployment Rates		Ratio*
	1990	1995‑97	1990	1995‑97
Capital	20%	17%	1	1.06
Caroni	16%	13%	0.8	0.81
Victoria	19%	15%	0.95	0.94
Southwest	23%	23%	1.15	1.44
Southeast	19%	17%	0.95	1.06
Northeast	25%	13%	1.25	0.81
Tobago	25%	12%	1.25	0.75
T and T	20%	16%	1	1

* Ratio of regional unemployment to national unemployment rate.

Source: 1990 Census and CSSP (1997).

In 1990, Caroni had a much lower unemployment rate than the rest of the country. Since then, unemployment has reduced significantly in all parts of the country except the southwest. Unemployment in Caroni however remains lower than all regions of the country except Tobago. Intuitively one would expect the Study Area to have a lower level due to the significant proportion of stable jobs provided by Government employment in Port of Spain and the retail and distribution establishments located in the town centre and along the Highway.

3.4.4 Employment within the Study Area

Table 3.14 presents the location of establishments (business and institutions) within the Study Area in 1990. Itinerant street vendors are excluded. Around 40% of the establishments are located, unsurprisingly, within the main urban concentration of Chaguanas; another 16% are located in Cunupia/ Mon Plaisir. The dominance of Chaguanas is reinforced by its high ratio of establishments to population – 46 per 1,000 people, which is 50% higher than anywhere else in the Study Area; the ratio rises to 93/1,000 population in the core area west of the Highway.

The great majority of these establishments are located along the principal roads (e.g. Southern Main Road and Caparo Valley Road). The main exceptions are central Chaguanas where these uses predominate and along the Highway where almost all the larger establishments are located (e.g. Seereram, Pricesmart, Bhagwansingh's Hardware). Other major employers are Caroni 1975 (cane farming) and the brick, tile and sand companies operating in East Longdenville. Apart from these enterprises, the great majority of the establishments will be small (one or two persons) and many will be small retail or service establishments.

It should also be noted that agriculture provided 20-25% of the employment located within the area in 1990. Although this proportion is likely to have decreased, this sector still constitutes an important employer within the Study Area.

Table 3.14 Distribution of Business and Institutional Establishments in the Study Area (1990)

Cluster	Establishments
Cluster	Businesses	Institutions	Total	%	Per 1,000 pop.
Cunupia/Bejucal/ Mon Plaisir	334	13	347	16%	28
Felicity	157	11	168	8%	25
Charlieville	223	2	225	10%	31
Jerningham/ Endeavour	78	6	84	4%	17
Enterprise

Issue	Revision	Description	Date	Signed

1 Introduction